Analyst Spots Death Cross on XRP Price as Exchange Inflows Surge

XRP price trades at $3.01 today, August 4, with a 5.11% increase in 24 hours. Despite the gains, an MVRV death cross has come up. At the same time, exchange inflows are rising, a move that now draws the question: is $4 still likely? Let’s explore.

Analyst Spots Death Cross Despite 5% XRP Price Surge

XRP might be gaining today because of soaring odds of September rate cuts, but headwinds remain. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has created a death cross. This signal can be seen with the move of the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The MVRV shows whether holders are sitting on profits or losses. Right now, the crossover suggests that those who bought XRP in the last 50 days are seeing less gains than long-term holders. When short-term holders are in the red like this, there is a higher chance they might sell.

While Martinez did not mention it, this death cross has been the cause for the price to trade in the red. For example, when it happened in mid-May, the XRP price fell from $2.65 to $1.90, less than six weeks later.

This means that even with today’s gains, the Ripple price is not out of the woods yet. Besides, this death cross seems to have spooked some traders. They have been moving coins to exchanges for the last two consecutive days.

Data from Coinglass shows that for five days, coins have been flowing from exchanges. This changed on Sunday, when netflows became positive at $27 million. Today, the trend is still the same, considering the $15 million inflows at press time.

This means that in two days, there have been 44 million XRP going to exchanges. These coins were not in the picture even during last week’s dip. That means that the XRP price might continue to bleed.

Bullish Pattern Shows $4 Still Likely as Bulls Defend Support

Last week, CoinGape reported XRP price might reach $4.70. Now, signs are emerging to show that even with headwinds present, $4 is still a possible target for Ripple to reach. This is because of two things: a falling wedge and firm support.

The falling wedge is the most consequential. It shows the downtrend is not strong. In this case, the Ripple price might just go back to making gains. The height of this pattern, a 24% surge, indicates that XRP might reach $4 if buyers come in now.

There is also the fact that XRP bulls are making an effort to hold the $3 price. However, their grip might be shaky because not the entire market is gaining. What this means is that unless XRP gets to the 78.6% Fibonacci of $3.22, bears have a gap that they can exploit.

The ADX line is also the other reason why bears have to be concerned. When it is dropping like it is doing presently, it shows that the drop contained in the falling wedge is weak. Hence, the XRP price might avert the crash alluded to by the MVRV. This also makes $4 a possible target to reach.

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muthoni

Muthoni Mary is a seasoned crypto market analyst and writer with over three years of experience decoding blockchain trends, price movements, and market dynamics. She holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Commerce (Finance) from Kenyatta University, blending a solid academic foundation with a sharp eye for technical analysis and a deep understanding of on-chain data. Her work delivers clear, data-driven insights that empower investors to navigate the fast-evolving digital asset space with confidence. When she’s not analyzing the markets, Mary enjoys reading and travelling.

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