The UK Government has announced a £121 million investment into quantum technologies, a move it says will help “tackle fraud, prevent money laundering, and drive growth”.
The government hopes to achieve this by bolstering the UK’s world-leading research programmes, which it says will bring a “range of benefits to working people, including improved healthcare systems and boosted energy efficiency in the grid.”
These are the perfect combination of big, impressive promises that are vague enough to evade any real scrutiny, with a budget that seems huge, but will most likely fall seriously short of making any real difference. Will these research projects actually bring about an end to fraud? Well, let’s start by looking at a breakdown of the spending.
An expensive venture
The new investment starts with £46.1 million through Innovate UK, and a further £21.1 million for the National Quantum Computing Centre, including a testbed programme with Innovate UK, to “to accelerate the discovery of more ways that quantum can overhaul how we work and solve problems”.
To me, this suggests the government wants more sectors to adopt quantum computing, but it’s not quite sure what for yet.
Quantum computing is in its infancy, and its potential is huge, but the British government is pledging hundreds of millions to a solution it hasn’t yet matched to a problem – just to avoid falling behind.
These cash injections come alongside a further £10.9 million for the National Physical Laboratory’s quantum measurement programme, in order to encourage more businesses to “make full use of the technology”.
Here’s the thing, though: quantum computing in its current form is outrageously expensive. Mass production of quantum computers for commercial use is still, at best guess, years away – and one single mid-range quantum computer (with 50-100 qubits) costs upwards of $1 million, SpinQ estimates.
Included in the £121 million figure is £24.6 million in funding from EPSRC for five previously announced research hubs, and £15.1 million spread between 11 Quantum Technology Acceleration Fellowships to help find “more real-world applications for quantum, from drug discovery to disease diagnostics” – yet more potential uses of the new emerging technology.
Great expectations
To be clear, research is always positive, and the government should be establishing public research projects into potential use-cases for quantum computing, an area that has huge potential for public benefit – and if quantum technology can eliminate fraud then that’s fantastic.
That being said, at this stage, quantum computing isn’t ready for commercialisation, and it is so expensive that £121 million is just a drop in the ocean for the technology, whereas that funding could be used to make a real, tangible difference elsewhere – like for the nature-friendly farming budget (recently cut by the government), costing the same amount, but protecting 239,000 hectares of land, or the £120 million project to help the UK transition to zero-emissions vehicles – a measurable benefit for the British public.
The UK has a well-developed technology sector, but struggles with a serious skills shortage, low wages, and a productivity problem. As great as quantum technology has the potential to be, these underlying issues will taint any new developments until they’re resolved – and the government’s promise to “save millions for our economy, create thousands of jobs and improve businesses across the country” with this relatively small cash injection seems like a stretch.
For context, it’s estimated that China has invested over $15 billion into public quantum funding, out-spending both the EU ($7.2 billion), and the US ($1.9 billion). To suggest that such a small investment by the UK will simultaneously tackle crime, fraud, and money laundering, as well as delivering thousands of jobs and cementing the UK as a world-leader in quantum is incredibly optimistic, and quite frankly, the money could be used elsewhere.
The UK’s current 10 year plan for quantum spending commits just £2.5 billion to development, an investment level likely to be overshadowed by a host of other states. Although investments are needed, without a coherent quantum strategy and guided public policy, these are likely to be lacking.