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More than 80% concerned president will use trade war as ‘economic force’

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The tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on Canada tomorrow are clearly an economic danger, but are they also an existential threat?

Trump in recent weeks has repeatedly suggested Canada should become the 51st state and threatened to use “economic force” to join the two countries together.

According to a poll out today, Canadians are taking the threat seriously.

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The majority of Canadians surveyed by public opinion research firm Leger Marketing, 83 per cent, are concerned that Trump will use the tariffs to push for a “closer and more formal economic relationship with the United States.”

The fear is widespread across the country, reaching its highest at 85 per cent in the Atlantic provinces and lowest in Ontario at 81 per cent.

In response to this threat, 73 per cent of Canadians support a policy where Canada matches any tariffs imposed by the U.S. on a dollar-for-dollar basis. Support for this is especially high among Liberal voters at 91 per cent and in British Columbia, 80 per cent, where the economy is less dependent on trade with the U.S.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said if Trump’s tariffs do go into force, Ottawa will retaliate with duties of its own on up to $155 billion in U.S. products.

Whether they fear Canada will be absorbed into the United States or not, Trump’s attack on America’s largest trading partner has angered Canadians and fuelled a wave of patriotism.

Seventy-seven per cent of respondents in the Leger poll said they had an unfavourable impression of Trump with only 14 per cent saying their impression was favourable. That percentage rises with Liberal voters, with 93 per cent giving Trump the thumbs down and falls for Conservative voters, with 57 per cent saying they have a negative impression.

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Canadians are also taking it upon themselves to show their displeasure. Sixty-six per cent say they are buying fewer American goods in stores and 63 per cent are buying less online.

The ubiquitous retail giant Amazon.com Inc has not been spared. Fifty-five per cent of poll respondents said they have decreased their purchases here, and 51 per cent are shunning American fast-food restaurants such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, KFC, Burger King and Subway.

Forty-five per cent are buying less from Costco, Walmart and Winners and 70 per cent say they are buying more Canadian goods.

Thirty per cent of those who had a trip planned to the United States have cancelled it.

Support for tariffs is lukewarm even among Americans. The poll finds that just a third of American respondents support tariffs on Canada. They are more keen on tariffs on China; 50 per cent support those, and just under 40 per cent support duties on Mexico.

Half of Americans also believe that Trump’s tariffs will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy.


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“Nice GDP number in Canada — too bad it’s a relic.” That was economist David Rosenberg’s reaction to Friday’s forecast-beating gross domestic product — and he wasn’t alone.

Canada’s economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, handily beating expectations of 1.7 per cent.

But not only does that data not reflect the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff threats on the economy since January, if those threats become reality this week any upbeat reading will be history in more ways than one.

“If the Trump tariffs go through as advertised, today’s number will soon be long forgotten,” said the founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. in a note after the data.

“The challenges ahead facing the Canadian economy are, in one word or less, daunting.”

  • The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada holds its convention in Toronto this week. Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is expected to give a speech on Monday and make a critical minerals announcement at the annual conference on Tuesday.
  • Today’s Data: United States construction spending, ISM Manufacturing

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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